This month’s ADP Employment Report was bad again, 175,000 small business jobs lost. Not as bad as last month, but still bad.
I had a good talk with Joel Prakken, of Macroeconomic Advisors, which produces the monthly survey for ADP, the large payroll processor. He pointed out, correctly, that he’s just working with what information is available — economics is educated guessing at best — but he didn’t sound very optimistic about quick recovery.
I asked him specifically about the phenomenon of large layoffs generating a rise in new businesses. That’s been true in past recessions, but, Joel said, it’s not clear yet whether that’s happening this time.